Statistical Analysis of Penalty Shoot-outs

Statistical Analysis of Penalty Shoot-outs
by Steve Amoia for Keeper Skool

I was reading an interesting article in La Gazzetta dello Sport. They quoted a British Professor, Jon Billsbury of the Open University, about a web site that he has created for the specific purpose to study penalty kick shoot-outs. Since we have already seen 3 out of the 4 semi-final games at Euro 2008 determined by the shoot-out, perhaps we can learn more about the historical statistics during such events.

Professor Billsbury theorizes that lesser known players do better in the pressure cooker of penalty shoot-outs.

“I giovani che hanno meno timori e che non devono vivere sotto la continua attenzione della stampa – spiega il professore – sono staticamente più bravi a segnare un rigore rispetto ai campioni. Non a caso, alcuni dei più importanti tiri dal dischetto della storia del calcio sono stati sbagliati proprio dai giocatori considerati i migliori delle loro squadre. Pensiamo a Roberto Baggio nella finale mondiale del 1994, o a Beckham contro la Turchia e il Portogallo, per non parlare di Andriy Shevchenko nella finale di Champions League contro il Liverpool”.

“The younger players have less fear and don’t have to live under the constant scrutiny of the press, explains the professor, they are statistically better to score a penalty in respect to greater champions. For example, some of the most important penalty kicks in the history of world football have been missed by players considered the best on their teams. We think of Roberto Baggio in the World Cup final of 1994, or of Beckham against Turkey and Portugal, not to mention Andriy Shevchenko in the Champions League Final against Liverpool.”

Italian translation by Steve Amoia.

Source: La Gazzetta dello Sport, 25 June 2008.

Country Data by Professor Billsbury

It probably will not surprise us that Germany and Argentina are at the top of the table. Here are the premier teams in terms of winning records at shoot-outs who have played in a World Cup final.

For a little bit of history, Uruguay won the first World Cup in 1930, and again in 1950. Holland lost two finals in a row: 1974 and 1978. Sweden lost to Brazil in 1958. Argentina won in 1978 and 1986. England won in 1966. Italy won in 1934, 1938, 1982, and 2006. West Germany won in 1954, 1974, and 1990. Brazil won in 1958, 1962, 1970, 1994, and 2002. France won in 1998. As you can see, the number of teams who have won the World Cup is a very elite group.

Argentina: 73%.
Germany/West Germany: 71%.
Brazil: 64%.
France: 50%.
Sweden: 50%
Uruguay: 43%
Italy: 33%.
The Netherlands: 20%.
England: 17%.

Figures courtesy of Penalty Shootouts.

Penalty Conversion Rates

Let’s take a look at the actual conversion rates for a few teams. I will begin with the remaining 4 sides at Euro 2008:

Germany: 85%.
Russia: n/a.
Spain: 74%
Turkey: n/a.

Here are some other high rates:

Argentina: 80%.
Australia: 80%.
Brazil: 83%.
Czech Republic: 100%.
Czechoslovakia: 100%.
England: 68%
France: 84%.
Iraq: 91%.
Italy: 72%.
Ivory Coast: 83%.
Mexico: 64%.
Namibia: 88%.
Romania: 73%.
Saudi Arabia: 87%.
Uruguay: 84%.
USA: 70%.

Figures courtesy of Penalty Shootouts.

To see the full table, please click here.

Steve Amoia is the author and editor of World Football Commentaries. He has written for Soccerlens and Keeper Skool.

Steve’s Stats: Analysis of Goalkeeper Performance at the Semi-final Round for 26 June 2008: Spain x Russia

Steve’s Stats: Analysis of Goalkeeper Performance at the Semi-final Round for 26 June 2008: Spain x Russia
by Steve Amoia for Keeper Skool

Spain, who are on a 20 game unbeaten streak, face a team that they defeated, 4 x 1, in the first fixture of the group round phase. Russia have not been at the semi-final stage of a major tournament since Euro 1988, but was very impressive in their last two games against Sweden and The Netherlands, respectively.

History

In three previous meetings at the European Nations Cup, Spain has won each time.

Guus Hiddink Wanted Italy

Image details: Euro 2008 – Russia Training served by picapp.com Guus Hiddink avrebbe voluto l’Italia in semifinale. “Perché – dice il commissario tecnico olandese della Russia – ha un gioco diverso dal nostro”. Guus Hiddink had wanted Italy in the semi-final. “Because, said the Dutch head coach of Russia, Italy has different style of play than ours.” “In Russia lo chiamano lo psicologo, il motivatore, la chioccia. Già immaginiamo la chiave della sfida: la Spagna che fa muro sulle fasce per bloccare quel mostro di Arshavin e l’istinto del gol di Pavlyuchenko.” “In Russia they call him the psychologist, the motivator, the brooder. Already they have imagined the key to the game: Spain will bunker the flanks to neutralize that monster Andrei Arshavin and the goal-instinct of Roman Pavlyuchenko.” Source: La Gazzetta dello Sport, 24 June 2008. Italian translations by Steve Amoia.

 

Luis Aragones on the Rematch

“It will be a very different game. They’ve got a very physically very fit side and have had an extra day’s rest. It will be extremely tough for us. Russia are at their peak given the way their season works and they were outstanding against the Dutch in extra time. It will be very difficult because they have a very good side.” Source: BBC Sport, 22 June 2008. The Keepers Iker Casillas is making his 81st international appearance for Spain. As John wrote in an earlier post, he was brilliant against Italy in the last penalty kick shoot-out. He has only conceded two goals in three games at this competition. Image details: Euro 2008 – Spain Training & Press Conference – Day 21 served by picapp.com

Igor Akinfeev is one of the rising young stars for CSKA Moscow. Tonight was his 25th cap, and he leads all keepers at Euro 2008 with 29 saves. Since the first game against Spain, he has only conceded one goal against The Netherlands.

Here are the game statistics, which are courtesy of the La Gazzetta dello Sport. Saves will be provided by ESPNsoccernet.

Spain (I. Casillas) x Russia (I. Akinfeev)

Goals allowed: 0 x 3
Shots on target faced: 1 x 11
Shots off-target faced: 5 x 8
Shots blocked: 3 x 2
*Saves: 3 x 12
Corners faced: 3 x 4
Crosses faced: 16 x 18
Posts and crossbar: 0 x 0
Passes: 10 x 14
Pass completion rate: 80% x 71%

Game environment: Night and rain.

*Saves courtesy of ESPNsoccernet.

Castrol Performance Index

If you would like to learn more about the numbers at Euro 2008, Castrol has some interesting statistics. For example, before tonight’s game, there had been 73 goals scored in 29 games. There have been 9 goals scored between minutes 46 and 60. To take a longer look at the Castrol stats, please click here.

Steve Amoia is the author and editor of World Football Commentaries. He has written for Soccerlens and Keeper Skool.

Artur Boruc plays positive role model and flips the bird at Croatian fans!

Speaking to a few of my female work colleagues about what they think is appealing in a guy, and they suggested the usual tall, dark and handsome spiel (check). Apart from that, they mostly want there guy to be a take-charge kinda lad (check). If the guy gets cocky, then the girls would find that unappealing (put a cross next to that). Read more

Steve’s Stats: Analysis of Goalkeeper Performance at the Quarterfinal Round for 25 June 2008: Germany x Turkey

Steve’s Stats: Analysis of Goalkeeper Performance at the Quarterfinal Round for 25 June 2008: Germany x Turkey
by Steve Amoia for Keeper Skool

Germany face Turkey in the first semi-final. The Germans are overwhelming favorites to eliminate this very entertaining and tenacious Turkish side that had only 15 players, due to injuries and suspensions, available for this game. Volkan Demirel is among the suspended, but will be replaced by the much more experienced, Reçber Rüştü.

No Rest for the Weary

According to UEFA spokesman, Mr. William Gaillard, “You can’t replace any players after the first game of the tournament has been played. We know some teams are facing difficulties, but this is a hard rule of the tournament. We have no intention of changing the tournament rules. If a team only had eight players to choose from before a match, then we might call an emergency meeting. But we have had no requests and we would find it a bit difficult changing now.”

Source: BBC Sport, 23 June 2008.

Fortunately for UEFA, the depleted team was Turkey and not one of the favorites. In the salad days of world football, there were no substitutions allowed during a game. If someone became injured, you played short for the rest of the match. If tournament games ended in a draw, they were replayed two or three days later to produce a winner. There were no penalty kick shoot-outs. Sometimes, corner kicks were taken into the equation to determine some games, but during major tournaments, games were replayed to produce a winner.

Interesting Connections

German head coach Joachim Loew has an interesting connection to Turkey. Early in his managerial career, he coached Fenerbahçe and Adanaspor. Two Turkish players, Hamit Altintop and Hakan Balta, were both born in Germany, which has a sizeable Turkish population.

Turkey has only led a game at Euro 2008 for 2 collective minutes. They were down 0 x 2 to the Czech Republic and won in normal time. They were down 0 x 1 against Croatia in injury time and subsequently won on penalty kicks. This will be their first semi-final appearance at the European Nations Cup.

The last time that Germany defeated Turkey was in 1992.

Germany’s Impressive Record in the Semi-Final Round

“This will be Germany’s sixth semi-final in UEFA European Championship history and their record is good, with four wins out of five. Their most recent last-four encounter was in 1996 when they defeated hosts England and went on to lift the trophy. The only loss, meanwhile, was on home soil in 1988 as they went down to the Netherlands after a late Marco van Basten goal. In 1980 they advanced straight to the final after winning their group.

• 1972 Belgium W 2-1
• 1976 Yugoslavia W 4-2 AET (After extra time).
• 1988 Netherlands L 1-2
• 1992 Sweden W 3-2
• 1996 England W 1-1 AET, 6-5 on penalties.”

Source: Euro2008.com.

Jens Lehmann on His International Future

“If we should make it to Vienna I don’t believe that I will announce a decision immediately after the final. I don’t have any time pressures.”

Source: BBC Sport, 24 June 2008.

Fatih Terim on Turkey

“I tell my players never to give up. I tell them that they shouldn’t be afraid of losing or conceding goals. This is football. You should never give up until the referee blows the final whistle.”

Source: BBC Sport, 20 June 2008.

The Keepers: Two Great Veterans of World Football

Jens Lehmann plays for Stuttgart, and tonight will be his 60th cap for Germany.He was a fixture on the great Arsenal teams, including the one that went unbeaten in the EPL.

Reçber Rüştü plays his club side football for Besiktas in the Turkish League, and tonight was his 119th international appearance for his country. In 2003, he was the FIFA Goalkeeper of the Year. In 2004, he was named to the list of 125 Greatest Living Footballers by Pelé.

Here are the game statistics, which are courtesy of the La Gazzetta dello Sport. Saves will be provided by ESPNsoccernet.

Germany (J. Lehmann) x Turkey (R. Rüştü)

Goals allowed: 2 x 3
Shots on target faced: 8 x 3
Shots off-target faced: 6 x 5
Shots blocked: 5 x 2
*Saves: 11 x 4
Corners faced: 8 x 2
Crosses faced: 25 x 16
Posts and crossbar: 2 x 0
Passes: 12 x 10
Pass completion rate: 17% x 60%

Game environment: Night and dry.

*Saves courtesy of ESPNsoccernet.

Castrol Performance Index

If you would like to learn more about the numbers at Euro 2008, Castrol has some interesting statistics. For example, before tonight’s game, there had been 68 goals scored. There have been 26 goals scored between minutes 61 and 90. To emphasize what Mr. Terim said above about playing until the final whistle, an astonishing number of 7 goals have been scored in second half injury time. To take a longer look at the Castrol stats, please click here.

Steve Amoia is the author and editor of World Football Commentaries. He has written for Soccerlens and Keeper Skool.

Sexy goalkeeping: Brazilian goalkeeper coach Gerhard Benthin shows the Brazilian goalkeeping style

Brazil has produced some of the most potent footballers on the planet. Names like Ronaldinho and Ronaldo (not the Manchester United maestro) spring to mind. But, Brazil has also produced some of the sexiest goalkeeping you’ll ever see…goalkeeping, and some may argue goalkeepers as well, or not. Dida and Rogerio Ceni with his goal scoring prowess are two that spring to mind instantly.

With the long drawn out genesis of the Brazilian style across the biggest leagues in the world, we tend to forget that Brazil also make some of the best goalkeepers in the world. One man whom is helping to create the best goalkeeper’s in Brazil is current CBF Brasil U/17 national team assistant coach and goalkeeper trainer Gerhard Benthin.

Coach Benthin also runs Brazil Soccer USA, which is a leading football training organization providing programs laced with the Brazilian style of football. Following is a video of coach Benthin in action, doing some training sessions with some of Brazil’s best young goalkeeping talent. Enjoy!

Iker Casillas v Gianluigi Buffon: The best goalkeepers of a generation go toe-to-toe at Euro 2008

It is not very often when you get to see the best of a generation battle it out in a penalty shoot-out. An epic struggle of wits and goalkeeping savvy smashed heads for advancement into the Euro 2008 semi finals. Read more

Steve’s Stats: Analysis of Goalkeeper Performance at the Quarterfinal Round for 22 June 2008: Italy x Spain

Steve’s Stats: Analysis of Goalkeeper Performance at the Quarterfinal Round for 22 June 2008: Italy x Spain
by Steve Amoia for Keeper Skool

Spain is the last team at Euro 2008 to remain after winning their first three games. Croatia and The Netherlands have been eliminated. As I noted yesterday, only one team has ever won the European Nations Cup after winning their first three group round games: France in 1984 with Michel Platini, who is the current President of UEFA.

Italy started slowly, as is their custom, and barely made it out of Group C. But I recall 1982 when they fared even worse (3 points from 3 games), and went on to defeat Argentina, Brasil, Poland, and finally West Germany in the World Cup final. Football is a game entertwined with history. Already at this Euro, Holland defeated Italy for the first time in 30 years, and Italy defeated France for the first time (in normal time) since World Cup 1978, As you will see in the comments below, history is not lost upon younger men such as Buffon, 30, and Casillas, 26. Between them, they have won 166 caps for their respective countries.

Record Set by van der Sar

Yesterday in defeat, the great Dutch keeper, Erwin van der Sar, set another record. He played in his 16th European Nations Cup game, and now holds the absolute record. He annoucement his retirement from international play after the game.

History is Against Spain

Spain has not defeated Italy in a competitive game since 1920 at the Olympic Games of Antwerp, Belgium; however, they have won 9 games in a row, and are unbeaten in their last 19. During that string, they beat Italy, 1 x 0, during a friendly in March 2008. During his tenure, Mr. Luis Aragones has only lost 4 games. On this particular date, 22 June, Spain had lost 3 penalty kick shoot-outs (1986, 1996, and 2002).

Comments by Manager Luis Aragones of Spain

“It is my job to relax the squad. I see the glass half full and the certainty of qualifying is within me. The important thing is to reach the semi-final, it doesn’t matter how. Italy are accustomed to giving their all and have won a great deal, so we must have respect and fear when facing them.”

Source:Football Italia, 21 June 2008.

Comments by Roberto Donadoni of Italy

“La Spagna è una squadra forte con grandi individualità. E’ composta da ottimi giocatori che in nazionale non hanno ottenuto gli stessi risultati che con i rispettivi club. Per questo avranno molta fame di vittoria .Noi dovremo giocare con la loro stessa voglia e come se avessimo la stessa fame”.

“Spain is a strong team with great individualtity. It is composed of excellent players who at the National team level haven’t obtained the same results that they have with their respective clubs. For this they will have a great hunger for victory. We will have to place with the same desire and as if we had the same hunger.”

Source: La Gazzetta dello Sport, 21 June 2008.

Comments by Gigi Buffon

“The fact they haven’t beaten us in competitive matches since 1920 could be a problem, because taboos are there to be broken. We just hope that record carries on for a few more years. Villa is one of the best in the world at striking the ball, while Torres has also shown he is strong. They are players who have been on the international stage for many years and we know them well.”

Source: Football Italia, 21 June 2008.

Iker Casillas on Luca Toni

“Dovremo stare molto attenti sulle palle inattive, perchè lui è molto alto. Se riusciremo a bloccarlo saremo sulla buona strada per scacciare una volta per tutte la maledizione dei quarti. Ma la favorita resta l’Italia, lo dice la storia”.

“We need to pay a lot of attention to the dead balls, because he is very tall. If we are able to control him, we will be on the right road to overcome all of our bad luck at the quarterfinal stages. But the favorite remains Italy, the history says so.”

Source: La Gazzetta dell Sport, 21 June 2008.

Italian translations of the quotes by Donadoni and Casillas by Steve Amoia.

The Keepers: Two of the Elite

Gigi Buffon is making his 86th appearance for the Azzurri. He will be the team captain tonight.

Iker Casillas will also captain La Furia Roja, and tonight will be his 80th cap for Spain.

Image details: EURO 2008 – Spain Training & Press Conference served by picapp.com

Here are the game statistics, which are courtesy of the La Gazzetta dello Sport. Saves will be provided by ESPNsoccernet.

Italy (G. Buffon) x Spain (I. Casillas)

Goals allowed: 0 x 0 AET
Penalty kicks allowed: 4 x 2
Penalty kicks saved: 1 x 2
Shots on target faced: 3 x 4
Shots off-target faced: 5 x 14
Shots blocked: 4 x 7
*Saves: 9 x 6
Corners faced: 8 x 3
Crosses faced: 26 x 31
Posts and crossbar: 1 x 0
Passes: 10 x 20
Pass completion rate:100% x 80% (Buffon had the first 100% rating in our compilation).

Game environment: Night and dry.

*Saves courtesy of ESPNsoccernet.

Castrol Performance Index

If you would like to learn more about the numbers at Euro 2008, Castrol has some interesting statistics. For example, according to their site today: “There were 54 shots last night, a tournament high. The game also boasted the most number of saves in a game (14) and the second highest number of passes (1,103).” To take a longer look, please click here.

Steve Amoia is the author and editor of World Football Commentaries. He has written for Soccerlens and Keeper Skool.

Goalkeeping: The school of hard knocks

Up until the age of 13 or 14 I had eyes like a falcon (consequently I’m blind as a bat now). My confidence had grown in leaps and bounds coming from playing local park football, to Super Youth League in Sydney. One training session dented my confidence profoundly for some time. During a one to one situation, I had run out to attack the ball in my 18 yard box, as the player ran onto the ball. What came next was a blur…

With extremely poor lighting, my team mate had lunged out to hit the ball as I attacked it, and unfortunately throughout the motion he had hit my head with ferocious force, leaving me limp on the ground. His foot had connected square across the top of my head and across my eyes. When the coach and my team mates pulled me up, I could barely see a few feet in front of me, everything was hazy.

That single moment shook me for some time, and subsequently from that day forth I had to wear contact lenses whilst playing. Situations like the above are part and parcel of being a competitive goalkeeper. Placing your body on the line is what is expected, it is what we do. Unfortunately, many young players never have a chance to fully rehabilitate from the emotional scars that can eventuate from such injuries.

The body heals, yes, but psychological damage can ensue for years. We’ve seen many great footballers whom had lost their “magic” touch from niggling injuries, some even quitting the game for good (remember Dutch legend Marco Van Basten). And whilst the physical hurt can be easily treated, the mental damage manifests over prolonged periods, and can result in further injury if left unchecked.

One shocking example of psychological scarring to a goalkeeper in the upper echelon of English football was cited in Thomas Reilly’s Science & Soccer (1996):

The Implication of injury were profound for Graham Tutt, the Charlton Athletic goalkeeper who was forced to retire after a kick in the face at the age of 20:

“It’s impossible to erase from my memory the moment of impact and pain when the boot of…made contact with my face at full force. The physical and mental scars of the accident will be with me for the rest if my life…I reached the ball at the split second that…was poised to strike it. His boot whacked me in the face…I couldn’t hear anything. Everything was hazy and strange.

‘He’s kicked my eye out’ was the immediate thought that ran through my mind. There was also a great deal of blood spurting from my nose and more blood coming from my cheek. My eyelid was split as well. But the most frightening thought was that I had lost an eye”. (Harris and Varney, 1977, 78 ff.)

In a long and detailed account of the post-trauma events, Tutt did not indicate that his psychological ‘scars’ were appreciated by those involved in the treatment. In fact, when Tutt reached the dressing room, the manager’s reaction was hardly sensitive:

” By this time both my eyes were closed and I was coughing blood, as he said to me,’Can you go on?” (Harris and Vareny, 1977).

The question is, how does a goalkeeper come back from the above adversity, when even the coaching staff at an ‘elite level’ is insensitive to the players condition? In some extreme cases they do not, whilst research by Tunks and Belissimo (1988) proved that:

“…some individuals seem to be able to transform calamities into opportunities for growth while others transform everyday hassles into overwhelming adversities”.

Therefore, gaining some “control” over your injury, and re-enforcing positive attitudes within a structured team environment is a great way of helping the goalkeeper overcome adversity from debilitating physical and mental scars. Fortunately, the modern game has allowed for the development of stronger awareness around sports psychology and its positive impact on the modern team dynamic.

Following are some brief points around treating psychological injuries:

Intervention strategies: Here the coaching staff should set about helping the footballer cope with frustration, depression, anger and tension via understanding the causes around the psychological stress and using positive imagery to re-enforce a good healthy outlook. (Source: A.M. Smith et al. [1990]).

Help set goals: Training staff need to be able to help their goalkeepers set actionable and measurable goals that are realistic and enforce positive outcomes through rehabilitation and then back in the competitive field of play.

Give your players quality time: Coaches need to genuinely spend time with their injured player to mae sure that the player knows that they have the coaches full support and is still a focal part of the team unit.

Comply with exercise: The hardest part of rehabilitation is sticking to your guns. Many players can drop out of good rehabilitation as a result of losing focus on the end goal. Being able to have a team of professionals to help guide a goalkeeper through a tough spot will help them stay focused on rehabilitation and get back onto the road to recovery in a timely fashion.

Goalkeeping is a super tough position from a physical and mental point of view and serious injury without any strategy from the goalkeeper themselves and support staff can scar many top level goalkeeper for life. In serious cases, many goalkeepers have given up the football altogether and are then emotionally unable to recover from the negative situation they have found themselves in.

In most cases, many of the mental scars that are associated with terrible injuries at top flight football are treatable. Being able to have a strong support team around you that consists of professional football staff, team mates, family and close friends is the best way to help overcome both the physical and mental scars associated with serious injury on the field.

Steve’s Stats: Analysis of Goalkeeper Performance at the Quarterfinal Round for 21 June 2008: The Netherlands x Russia

Steve’s Stats: Analysis of Goalkeeper Performance at the Quarterfinal Round for 21 June 2008: The Netherlands x Russia
by Steve Amoia for Keeper Skool

Steve’s Stats: Analysis of Goalkeeper Performance at the Quarterfinal Round for 20 June 2008: Croatia x Turkey

Steve’s Stats: Analysis of Goalkeeper Performance at the Quarterfinal Round for 20 June 2008: Croatia x Turkey
by Steve Amoia for Keeper Skool

Croatia cruised through the first round, winning all three games, and only conceded one goal. Turkey gave us one of the most exiting games of this tournament during their last match against the Czechs. Unfortunately for the Turks, Volkan Demirel must serve a two-match suspension. But his replacement, Reçber Rüştü, is a very experienced keeper, and was a key component of the Turkish team that finished in third place at World Cup 2002.

Interview with Slaven Bilic, Manager of Croatia, Last Year at Wembley: “Wake Up, England.”

Next Page »