Statistical Analysis of Penalty Shoot-outs

Statistical Analysis of Penalty Shoot-outs
by Steve Amoia for Keeper Skool

I was reading an interesting article in La Gazzetta dello Sport. They quoted a British Professor, Jon Billsbury of the Open University, about a web site that he has created for the specific purpose to study penalty kick shoot-outs. Since we have already seen 3 out of the 4 semi-final games at Euro 2008 determined by the shoot-out, perhaps we can learn more about the historical statistics during such events.

Professor Billsbury theorizes that lesser known players do better in the pressure cooker of penalty shoot-outs.

“I giovani che hanno meno timori e che non devono vivere sotto la continua attenzione della stampa – spiega il professore – sono staticamente più bravi a segnare un rigore rispetto ai campioni. Non a caso, alcuni dei più importanti tiri dal dischetto della storia del calcio sono stati sbagliati proprio dai giocatori considerati i migliori delle loro squadre. Pensiamo a Roberto Baggio nella finale mondiale del 1994, o a Beckham contro la Turchia e il Portogallo, per non parlare di Andriy Shevchenko nella finale di Champions League contro il Liverpool”.

“The younger players have less fear and don’t have to live under the constant scrutiny of the press, explains the professor, they are statistically better to score a penalty in respect to greater champions. For example, some of the most important penalty kicks in the history of world football have been missed by players considered the best on their teams. We think of Roberto Baggio in the World Cup final of 1994, or of Beckham against Turkey and Portugal, not to mention Andriy Shevchenko in the Champions League Final against Liverpool.”

Italian translation by Steve Amoia.

Source: La Gazzetta dello Sport, 25 June 2008.

Country Data by Professor Billsbury

It probably will not surprise us that Germany and Argentina are at the top of the table. Here are the premier teams in terms of winning records at shoot-outs who have played in a World Cup final.

For a little bit of history, Uruguay won the first World Cup in 1930, and again in 1950. Holland lost two finals in a row: 1974 and 1978. Sweden lost to Brazil in 1958. Argentina won in 1978 and 1986. England won in 1966. Italy won in 1934, 1938, 1982, and 2006. West Germany won in 1954, 1974, and 1990. Brazil won in 1958, 1962, 1970, 1994, and 2002. France won in 1998. As you can see, the number of teams who have won the World Cup is a very elite group.

Argentina: 73%.
Germany/West Germany: 71%.
Brazil: 64%.
France: 50%.
Sweden: 50%
Uruguay: 43%
Italy: 33%.
The Netherlands: 20%.
England: 17%.

Figures courtesy of Penalty Shootouts.

Penalty Conversion Rates

Let’s take a look at the actual conversion rates for a few teams. I will begin with the remaining 4 sides at Euro 2008:

Germany: 85%.
Russia: n/a.
Spain: 74%
Turkey: n/a.

Here are some other high rates:

Argentina: 80%.
Australia: 80%.
Brazil: 83%.
Czech Republic: 100%.
Czechoslovakia: 100%.
England: 68%
France: 84%.
Iraq: 91%.
Italy: 72%.
Ivory Coast: 83%.
Mexico: 64%.
Namibia: 88%.
Romania: 73%.
Saudi Arabia: 87%.
Uruguay: 84%.
USA: 70%.

Figures courtesy of Penalty Shootouts.

To see the full table, please click here.

Steve Amoia is the author and editor of World Football Commentaries. He has written for Soccerlens and Keeper Skool.